Blog > Pending Home Sales Make Largest Jump Since June 2020 as Mortgage Rates Fall

Pending Home Sales Make Largest Jump Since June 2020 as Mortgage Rates Fall

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Pending Home Sales Make Largest Jump Since June 2020 as Mortgage Rates Fall

In December, U.S. pending home sales experienced a notable surge, rising by 8.3% from the previous month, as disclosed by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) in its monthly index report released on Friday. These pending home sales represent transactions where contracts have been signed for the sale of existing homes, though the sales have not yet closed. This substantial month-to-month increase is the most significant since June 2020 when the metric rose by 14.9%, surpassing the expectations of Wall Street economists who had anticipated a mere 2% rise. Year-over-year transactions also demonstrated a positive trend, showing an increase of 1.3%.

"The Housing Market is Off to a Good Start This Year" - NAR

The NAR unveiled an updated forecast for existing-home sales in 2024, projecting a substantial 13% rise from the previous year, reaching a pace of 4.62 million. The association anticipates that the U.S. Federal Reserve will implement four interest rate cuts in 2024, and the 30-year mortgage rates are expected to fluctuate in the 6% to 7% range for the majority of the year. Earlier reports on increased contract signings and mortgage applications in the week suggested a pent-up demand from buyers attracted by declining mortgage rates.

However, the recovery of the housing market continues to be impeded by a limited housing supply. The report underscores the importance of addressing the "lock-in effect" and encouraging more homeowners to put their properties on the market to facilitate a significant increase in sales. Lawrence Yun, the chief economist at NAR, acknowledged the positive start to the year in the housing market, attributing it to falling mortgage rates and stable home prices. He emphasized that while job additions and income growth contribute to housing affordability, a crucial element for satisfying potential demand lies in boosting housing supply.

How the Markets Responded 

Market reactions to this news were evident in early trading on Friday, with stock indices DJIA and SPX registering gains. Concurrently, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, represented by BX:TMUBMUSD10Y, rose above 4.1%, indicating investor response to the dynamic conditions in the housing and financial markets.


Source: MarketWatch

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